How we know: Sources are listed at the end. All booking-window and day-of-week figures are quoted from Google's published analysis of Google Flights data; none are Wildly measurements.
Holiday fares are the one case where "wait and see" reliably loses. Demand is fixed by the calendar, airlines know it, and the cheap fare buckets on the obvious travel days are small and sell early. The good news is that the pattern is well documented, so you can plan against it.
When to book, by holiday
Google's analysis of its own flight data for the 2025 season gives these windows (Google holiday travel trends 2025):
- Thanksgiving: lowest prices have been about 35 days before departure, with a low range of 24–59 days. In practice that means booking in October.
- Christmas: lowest prices about 51 days before departure, low range 32–73 days. Mid-October to mid-November is the window.
- Domestic flights generally: about 39 days out; international 49 or more days out.
Earlier seasons showed similar shapes (Thanksgiving low around 45 days out, Christmas around 58) (Thrifty Traveler on Google Flights data), so treat the ranges, not the exact day, as the guidance: roughly one to two months before the holiday, earlier for international.
New Year's travel follows the Christmas window; the return leg in the first days of January is the contested one.
Which days to fly
Google's data puts Monday-to-Wednesday departures about 13% cheaper than weekend departures across the year, and the day you buy barely matters (about 1.3% between the cheapest and dearest booking day) (Google holiday travel trends 2025). Around the holidays the same logic sharpens:
- Thanksgiving: the Wednesday before and the Sunday after are the peak days. Flying out Monday or Tuesday and back Friday or the following Monday or Tuesday avoids both.
- Christmas: the weekend before the 25th and the weekend after New Year's are the peaks. Departing on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day itself, and returning midweek, is usually cheapest.
- Layovers: Google's data shows connecting itineraries about 22% cheaper on average than nonstops; on holiday dates that gap is often the difference between a fare you accept and one you do not.
The contrarian pattern
Arrive on the holiday, leave before the next peak. A Thanksgiving-morning arrival still gets you to dinner; a return on Friday or Saturday beats Sunday. For Christmas, arriving on the 24th or 25th and leaving on the 28th–30th avoids both weekends. This works best for domestic and short-haul trips; for long-haul, prioritise the return date, which is where most of the premium sits.
International over the holidays
Winter-sun routes (Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America) peak from the week before Christmas to the first week of January, with a second peak at spring break. Europe is off-peak in December except for the Christmas-market cities, and the days right after New Year's are among the cheapest of the year to fly east. If you have any flexibility, a Europe trip that starts on January 2–3 is priced very differently from one that starts on December 20. Check current fares on JFK to Paris, LAX to London, Chicago to Cancún or Miami to Bogotá.
Why booking windows compress
For ordinary dates the cheap buckets refill when bookings lag forecast. On holiday dates the forecast is high and rarely wrong, so the airline protects more seats for late, high-paying demand and reopens cheap buckets less often. That is why the "wait for a drop" strategy that works in April fails in late November.
Using alerts for holiday travel
Set the alert early (late summer for Thanksgiving, September for Christmas), anchor the target to the current fare rather than a hoped-for one, and turn on flexible dates so a Tuesday departure can satisfy it. When it fires, book that day; holiday buckets do not reopen. If you reach the low window without a hit, book at the going rate. Set a price alert and see how to choose the target.
FAQ
When is the best time to book Thanksgiving flights? About a month to two months out; Google's data puts the low around 35 days before departure with a 24–59-day range.
When should I book Christmas flights? Roughly seven weeks out; Google's data shows the low around 51 days before departure, range 32–73 days.
Is it cheaper to fly on Thanksgiving Day or Christmas Day? Usually yes; the day itself is off-peak compared with the days either side.