How we know: Sources are listed at the end. The booking-window figures are from ARC and Expedia's published analysis of their own ticketing data, not Wildly observations; Wildly's own price series only began in late September 2026.
A price alert is only useful if it fires while the fare is still bookable. Set the target too low and it never fires; set it too high and every notification is noise. The fix is not a magic number. It is anchoring the target to what the route is pricing at right now, adjusting for season, and running two alerts instead of one.
Start from today's price, not a number you read somewhere
The most common way people set a target is to remember a fare they once saw ("someone got New York to London for $380") and set the alert there. That number may be years old, from a different season, or a mistake fare that lasted an afternoon.
Start instead from the current published range for your specific route and dates. Open the route page, for example JFK to Paris, LAX to Bangkok or Chicago to Sydney, look at what the fare is today, and search your actual dates on the airline or a metasearch engine so you know the current price for your trip. That is your anchor.
Google Flights' own price tracking takes the same approach: it emails you on changes from the current fare for the dates or route you track, and warns when a tracked route's prices are "likely to go up" (Google Flights Help). No tracker, Wildly included, can tell you a fare will exist that the market is not currently offering.
A simple framework: realistic target and stretch target
Set two alerts on the same route.
Alert 1, the realistic target. Pick a price meaningfully below today's fare for your dates, somewhere you would book without hesitation. For most international economy trips that means a discount you would notice on a credit-card statement, not a rounding error. If this alert fires, book.
Alert 2, the stretch target. Set a second alert much lower, at the price you would be thrilled by. It may never fire. When it does (a flash sale, a fare war, occasionally a mistake fare) you want to know within the day, because those fares rarely last.
The realistic alert gets you on the plane. The stretch alert catches the outliers without making you wait on them.
Adjust the target for the season you are flying
Fares on the same route move with demand, and demand follows the calendar: northern-summer travel to Europe, the December holidays, spring break, and destination-specific peaks (cherry blossom in Japan, Carnival in Brazil). A target that is realistic for a February departure to Paris can be unrealistic for a July departure on the same route.
Practical rule: anchor each alert to the current fare for the dates you are actually flying, not to the cheapest date on the calendar. If your dates are flexible, use a flexible-date alert (Wildly checks a window of a few days either side of your dates) so a cheaper adjacent departure can satisfy the target.
When to lower the target, when to raise it, when to book
- Lower it if the alert fires every few days. The route regularly clears your threshold and you can afford to be pickier.
- Raise it if you have been tracking through the normal booking window with no hits. ARC and Expedia's analysis of their ticketing data found that international travellers who booked 18 to 29 days before departure saved up to 17% compared with those who booked more than two months out, and that Sunday was the cheapest day to purchase (ARC / Expedia 2025 Air Hacks). Those are averages, not guarantees, but if you are inside a month of an international departure and the target has never fired, the target is probably below what the market will offer.
- Just book when the current fare is acceptable, your dates are fixed, and you are within a few weeks of departure. Waiting for a price that never appears costs more than paying a fair one.
Mistake fares and flash sales
Mistake fares (pricing errors, currency glitches) cannot be targeted; they appear without warning and are usually gone within hours. A stretch alert is the only sensible way to catch one. Flash sales are more predictable: airlines run them around known windows such as late August, Black Friday and January, and the discounts are real but ordinary. Set your realistic alert where a sale fare would land, not where a mistake fare would.
FAQ
How do I know the "average" price for my route? Use the current fare on the route page and a search of your own dates as the anchor. Wildly's route pages show what the route is pricing at now, and as our own daily observations accumulate they will show the recent range as well.
Should I set different targets for different departure dates on the same route? Yes if your dates sit on either side of a demand peak. A midweek October departure and a Friday before Thanksgiving are effectively different products.
My alert has not fired in months. Is it broken? Almost always it means the target is below what the route is offering. Check the current fare on the route page; if it is far above your target, raise the target or switch to flexible dates.
Specific dates or flexible dates? Flexible-date alerts check several departure and return combinations, so more chances to hit your target. Use them whenever your trip can move by a day or two.
Ready to try it? Set a price alert with a realistic target and a stretch target on the same route.